Supply Dynamics: The primary factor driving this price drop is a shift in supply. With the resumption of previously halted production lines, the industry’s capacity utilization rate has risen to approximately 71%. Despite low industry inventory levels, the market sentiment leans bearish, leading to a marginal decrease in acrylonitrile spot prices.

Cost Support: Acrylonitrile’s main upstream raw material is propylene. Post-holiday, the propylene market experienced a slight supply strain and a price rebound due to earlier plant maintenance shutdowns. However, with multiple plants restarting and new capacities coming online, the propylene market is expected to ease in May.

Demand Outlook: On the demand side, the ABS industry faces intensified competition and reduced profitability, leading to increased production cuts. However, with raw material prices dropping, ABS profits are gradually recovering, boosting production enthusiasm. Conversely, the demand for acrylonitrile from the downstream acrylic fiber industry continues to decline.

Conclusion: With additional acrylonitrile plants commencing operations and maintenance units restarting, the market supply is set to increase. Although propylene prices have risen, the downstream demand boost remains limited. It is anticipated that the acrylonitrile market will continue to face a supply surplus in the short term, leading to further price decline, albeit with a limited scope.

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