Introduction
The maritime shipping sector is experiencing significant activity, with expectations for sustained high demand through August. This period marks the peak season, a trend supported by the analysis of cargo volumes over the past fifteen years.
Key Developments in the Global Maritime Shipping Sector:
Peak Season Continuity: Container shipping demand typically peaks in August, with a projected increase of 5% to 10% on top of already high cargo volumes. This surge may intensify the existing challenges of container and space shortages in the market.
Global Port Congestions:
Southeast Asia: Singapore has reactivated the defunct Keppel Terminal to manage container pile-ups. However, major transshipment hubs like Port Klang and Tanjung Pelepas are experiencing extended waiting times with no significant reduction in overall transfer times.
Northeast Asia: Domestic ports are facing varying degrees of congestion, with ship dwell times reaching the highest levels in nearly three years.
Latin America: Congestion at key ports like Cristobal, Manzanillo, and Balboa has worsened due to the situation in the Red Sea and strikes in Chile.
Europe and the Mediterranean: Brief strikes in Germany and France have slightly impacted port operations. The average wait time for large ships at the Port of Barcelona is 4-5 days.
North America: Persistent congestion at the Port of Charleston has led some shipping companies to skip ports temporarily to mitigate schedule disruptions, with similar issues at the Port of Savannah expected to continue into early July.
China-U.S. (Trans-Pacific Route):
The supply-demand imbalance persists with severe overbooking expected to last into early July or longer. Shipping companies are deploying extra vessels, but this has not adequately alleviated the backlog. The ongoing issue of weight limits on the U.S. East Coast remains prominent.
Further increases in freight rates are anticipated in early July, driven by current market demands, with peak season surcharges (PSS) expected to remain high. The uncertainty surrounding strikes by Canadian railway and U.S. East Coast dockworkers adds potential for greater crises in space availability and freight rates.
China-Latin America:
Demand in South America's eastern markets has slightly decreased, but Mexico's demand remains strong. Shipping companies have announced full capacity for the next two weeks, with overbooking expected to persist until mid-July.
Due to dual pressures of overbooking and container shortages, freight rates are being pushed higher and are expected to continue rising into July, possibly breaking the $10,000 threshold.
China-Europe:
By late June, a shortage of available containers has further driven up the SCFI Europe index, with a cumulative increase of 37% over the past four weeks. This trend is expected to continue into mid-July, though the rate of increase may taper.
Strong booking volumes are expected to persist over the next four weeks, with most shipping companies reporting tight space availability. There is an anticipated increase in FAK (Freight All Kinds) rates by shipping companies in July.
China-Mediterranean:
Booking volumes remain high but have slowed slightly, with demand expected to stabilize in early July. The SCFI index's rate of increase has narrowed, and some shipping companies are showing signs of easing spot freight rates.
Overall, the situation with container availability has not improved, and some shipping companies are experiencing exacerbated shortages.
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